Minimum pricing, maximum uncertainty

A recent BII (British Institute of Innkeeping) survey showed that the majority (77%) of licensees in England and Wales support plans to introduce a minimum price for alcohol — and most of those who expressed a preference (81%) wanted the highest proposed price of 50p per unit of alcohol.

But a report from Zolfo Cooper reveals a significant majority of consumers (60%) are against a minimum price.

So publicans and their customers are at odds on the matter. Can we look to pub companies for some thought leadership on the matter? Not really.

Greene King is all for it — CEO Rooney Anand even temporarily considered defrosting his relationship with the PMA​ to give a rare interview on the subject. Meanwhile, JD Wetherspoon couldn’t be more angry about the prospect of minimum pricing, with chairman Tim Martin calling its supporters “flat-earthers”.

As with many arguments whose participants are so polarised, ‘evidence’ supporting each side is presented as fact. But until or unless minimum pricing happens, no-one can be sure of its effects — including any potential unintended consequences. Although any fule kno​ that an increase in price tends to cause a reduction in consumption on demand-sensitive products.

One Canadian study suggested that minimum pricing cuts alcohol consumption by 3.4% every time minimum pricing increases by 10%.

And surely that is the point of minimum pricing — to reduce the consumption of alcohol. It would be a signal from the Government that it considers alcohol so harmful a substance that, by imposing a minimum price, it intends to have a say on how it is sold, beyond its licensing controls and educational messages.

They haven’t even done that with tobacco in the UK, and where they have tried that elsewhere, the European Court has ruled it an illegal infringement of competition under EU law.

So where does this leave minimum pricing for alcohol in the UK?

Binge-drinking is a complex societal and cultural phenomenon with many causes beyond cheap supermarket booze and multi-buy promotions in the on and off-trade. Minimum pricing is a blunt measure that could — if escalated — cause the pub trade significant collateral damage.

But of course it might be a lesser evil than the alternative ideas our legislators will inevitably dream up if their minimum-pricing plans are foiled.

At the PMA​ our instinct is anti-minimum pricing. Solutions to problems should be targeted precisely at their causes, and not chucked wildly in their general direction.