So much seems to be riding on current external events; hope runs nearly as high as cynicism.
To expect industry agreement to end amicably is wishful thinking — both sides are fighting for their very survival, and the needs of some parties are detrimental to the needs of others.
Industry unity would be our best chance of moving forward, but tenants are no more likely to support the BBPA than the pubcos are to voluntarily scrap the tie. Like it or not, it seems our only hope of progress lies in intervention.
The tie was intended to be a symbiotic relationship, each party benefiting from the existence of the other. Those honourable origins seem all but extinct, hence our predicament.
The pub industry is a modern-day Easter Island. Some — like the Rapanui people who over-exploited their island's natural resources — are over-exploiting the resources of the sector, resulting in the collapse of a finely balanced system and the extinction of British pubs at an unprecedented rate.
The Rapanui died of starvation at the expense of the natural resources of their island leaving only "moai", the monuments of their past.
"Initiatives" like the BBPA framework, have distracted many from the issue of the tie — perhaps that was the point. The BBPA seems to prefer to offer guidance favouring its members, because it is of little effect on them, and seeks to hide that preference behind a veil of objectivity.
The plan is to persuade those in positions to make a difference that, unlike after the Trade & Industry Select Committee of 2004, changes are happening, voluntarily.
Failing tenants have nothing to offer and over-indebted pubcos couldn't compromise if they wanted to.
The BISC and Government have no easy task. Soft regulation will do nothing but assure us of escalating in-fighting until the next predictable select committee inquiry. Robust recommendations and assertive action by Government may result in some companies being unable to survive.
The choice is unpleasant, but simple — back the pubcos at the risk of the pubs or back the pubs at the risk of the pubcos, as anything else will simply delay the inevitable. If the status quo is maintained the entire industry, all pubcos, brewers, tenants and consumers alike are at risk.
Empty, boarded-up pubs appear to be our "moai" monuments and we can expect many more if the industry Rapanui are left to their own devices.
I don't like the uncertainty of Government intervention, but I like even less the certainty if they don't.