What will 2010 bring the pub sector?

Pub revenues under pressure, companies going into administration, rising costs of doing business, tenants revolting and debt-laden pub companies. Yes, we are talking about 2009, but are we likely to see more of the same in 2010? We asked some industry types for their thoughts on what the coming 12 months will bring to the sector.

The trade body

Nick Bish, chief executive of the Association of Licensed Multiple Retailers​:

"The pub sector will be the last out of the recession - exacerbated by employment being a lagging indicator and the constraints on discretionary spending. The rise in VAT in January will be the excuse to spend nothing that month.

"The Tories will win an early [March?] election but the majority depends on the turnout. A Tory government will have the same problems as their predecessors and the same options - step one, increase VAT to 20 per cent!

"The BIS Select Committee will report on pubcos and the minister will make up his mind ditto - probably to refer to the Competition Commission which is a sword definitely with two edges! One way or another this matter must calm down in 2010 - surely?"

The pubco boss

Tim Martin, chairman and founder of JD Wetherspoon​:

"I hope that 2010 brings less interference from government and a greater realisation from political parties that pubs are an important part of British and Irish culture, paying huge amounts of tax, and providing a better environment for having a few drinks than parks, streets and even dinner parties.

"I hope that pub rents stay flat or reduce for a good few years and that the cost of beer for tenants remains subdued for years to come, in order to aid recovery from the traumas of the recent past."

The licensee

Mike Smith, licensee of the Three Compasses, Hornsey, London​:

"Devoid of money and ideas, the leaden weight of the two largest pubcos (Punch Taverns and Enterprise Inns) will continue to act as a depressive drag on the pub trade; the managed pubs lack innovation and their leased estates desperately need long-term investment. However, their senior management will be more focused on managing debt and fighting the abolition of the tie (probably successfully on both counts) than anything that will actually help drive the pub trade forward.

"The more balanced innovative businesses (eg, Wetherspoons, Young's, Fuller's) will continue to seize opportunities that arise during the recession. They will demonstrate that you do not have to turn pubs into restaurants to prosper.

"Regardless of which party wins the general election, the civil servants and quangos associated with the Department of Health will continue with their long-term anti-alcohol agenda. Be prepared for the next push towards publicans being made to limit the customer's alcoholic consumption and the total ban on any alcohol intake before driving.

"Finally, real ales will continue to increase their market share versus lagers, and specialist lagers will continue to grow versus the mass draught brands as consumers become more discerning about what they put inside their bodies."

The brewery boss

Michael Turner, chairman of Fuller, Smith & Turner​:

"The past year has been dominated by the debate over the beer tie which has become both bitter and very personal. We all have to stand back for a moment to see how damaging this vitriolic dispute has been for our whole industry, with extremely bad publicity harming the image of all pubs in the eyes of the general public.

"While the various factions have been fighting, the Chancellor has increased duty by more than 20 per cent since March 2008, and endless legislation has been introduced that is very costly to comply with.

"The government has conveniently been able to claim that the pub closures have nothing to do with them, and blame it all on the tie. The result is that brewers, licensees and customers all suffer from the increased cost of their pint.

"I hope that 2010 becomes the year when the changes that have come out of the mediation process are implemented, and the trade unites to fight its corner in Parliament and presents a positive image of our industry to the media and the consumer. The British pub is the centre of the community and the envy of the world, but we all have to promote its image together, or everyone in our industry will suffer."

The pubco boss

Giles Thorley, chief executive, Punch Taverns​:

"2010 has to be a year in which we build on some of the positive changes seen this year both for Punch, our partners and the industry. We have a key role to play in this and remain committed to building open and transparent relationships with our partners. We have already started this process, but recognise that we have a long way to go and it won't happen overnight.

"I genuinely believe that the industry will be in a much stronger position at the end of this year. There will be significant improvement for licensees through the new codes of practice and rent review processes that will be implemented swiftly.

"I also believe that key industry bodies, who have had their differences, will come together to work for a more positive future for the pub industry in 2010 and we will do all we can to facilitate this.

"We recognise that we have to do more to demonstrate our commitment to change. We launched our Pathway to Partnership in 2009 and we will build on this in 2010 to make this live for our partners.

"We have already held our first Partner Forum and in spring will launch our new Partner Charter, which will be the first of the major building blocks on our Pathway to Partnership.

"Trading conditions in 2009 were the toughest we have seen in many years and have forced the industry to accelerate the changes needed so that both our partners and the industry are in better shape to survive for the future."

The MP

Peter Luff, Conservative MP for Mid-Worcestershire and chairman of the Business, Innovation and Skills Select Committee​:

"2010 should be a defining year for the pub industry. For far too long the industry has been caught up in disputes between pub companies and lessees.

"The industry has promised change on a number of occasions, but nothing has yet been delivered. Next year, it will have to prove that it can put its own house in order. If it cannot do this, government intervention will be necessary.

"We all want to see a thriving pub industry which operates freely, transparently and without obstacles to competition in the market. For that to happen, the acrimony of the past needs to be left behind. Landlords and lessees need to work together to deliver the agreements which industry needs.

"If the commitments made by the British Beer & Pub Association and the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors come to fruition then the industry will have made significant progress. I am not naïve enough to think that all the problems within the industry can be solved overnight, but I am confident that with the right amount of goodwill on both sides, that change can happen.

"If we sort out these relationships once and for all, then politicians can turn their attention to the other vital questions affecting pubs."

The trade body

Brigid Simmonds, chief executive, British Beer & Pub Association​:

"The general election is a key opportunity to influence the policy debate in the coming months. We will be using the 'I'm Backing the Pub' campaign to communicate core industry messages, and to seek commitments from parties and candidates that the industry's policy agenda will be actively engaged with by any incoming government.

"Working with a government with a new mandate, whoever is elected, will be a crucial challenge. The government will