Pubcos disposals set to flood market

Property agents say the pub market will be flooded with between 1,000 and 2,000 pubco disposals in 2010.

Robin Mence, managing director of Sidney Phillips said at least 2,000 pubco disposals would come on the market in 2010, while other agents agreed that pubcos would continue to rationalise their estates over the coming years. They estimated that between 5,000 and 15,000 sites could be sold off in the coming years.

Mence added that he thought around 40% of the disposals would be in the north and Scotland, but said that South Wales had the highest intensity of disposals for both Enterprise Inns and Punch Taverns.

Andrew Watt, head of licensed leisure at Colliers CRE, said "up to 10,000 pubs" from both pubcos and individual operators could be sold off over the next five to 10 years in mostly urban areas.

Stephen Taylor, managing director of Guy Simmonds said: "We have just seen the start of it [disposals]. There will be many thousands, possibly 10,000 to 15,000 in the long term." He also warned that the "£100,000 freehold pubco disposal will become the norm".

But Fleurets' Simon Hall was more cautious — "pubcos are becoming more selective. The free-for-all that we experienced in 2009, where everything was for sale, will end."

"The new year may see an initial influx," said Hall, as struggling tenants who held on for Christmas ceased trading. But he said the pubco disposals wouldn't account for more than 5,000 pubs in the coming years.

"I don't think the market could maintain prices and handle the flow — this will be restricted to 1,000 per year."