A leading drinks analyst predicts "green shoots" in the on-trade market won't emerge until late 2010.
Nielsen consultant Graham Page's prediction comes as gloomy new data from the company shows on-trade volumes fell 9% in the year to July 2009.
"The on-trade's biggest problem is that the consumer has started to drink at home more often than not and it's lost its core heavy drinkers, because they are those most heavily hit by the recession," said Page. "The working man in the Midlands, the north and Scotland has been especially hit. It's now percolating to the south and other parts.
"The on-trade's position is going to be exceptionally tough, at least until the back end of 2010 when we may start to see green shoots."
Independent operators far outperformed other outlets — volumes fell 3%, compared to 10% at leased and tenanted pubs and 9% in the managed sector. Page said independent operators often have more scope to negotiate deals with suppliers and adapt to market trends than tied licensees. Independent pubs are also typically of higher quality and take more money.
"There are some very good tenanted and leased pubs. The problem is the bottom 20% is dying on its arse.
"The sales capacity of these outlets has been hammered in the last 18 months to two years. Rental levels relative to profit have been squeezed to breaking point."
On-trade sales dipped less steeply by value — down 5% — than by volume. Page said this shows operators are raising prices to mitigate volume falls.
He said this summer has been "patchy". Sales dipped 8% in July and 9% in May.
Among the different drinks categories in the past year, cider held up — volumes increased 1% — helped by the success of pear versions of popular brands.
Vodka is also holding steady, with sales by value down 1%. Its "neutral flavour" makes it a popular mixer, Page stated. The biggest rise has been in golden rum — sales soared 10% by volume and 21% in value.
Page said cask ale has become a "traffic builder" to attract customers to pubs. Beer's performance overall reflected the total on-trade, falling 9% by volume and 5% by value.