The UK economy: has the tide really turned?

Last week I wondered out loud whether economically next year would make 2009 look like a chimpanzees' tea party.

Notwithstanding that while hugely popular in my youth such spectacles have rightly been consigned to the bin of political correctness, allow me to revisit this theme, if you will.

There is a growing body of opinion that in the UK at least the economic corner has been turned. The government would like us to think so, obviously. The Bank of England put in a strong case last week too, though I thought we had to wait until the middle of next month before official confirmation of an end to the recession.

Also, a recent poll of equity strategists conducted by a financial news website found five of the six surveyed reckoning things were looking up, with corporate revenues on the rebound and the housing market improving. The dissenting voice argued the credit cycle had "not played itself out".

There is a belief too among analysts covering the pub and brewing sectors that perhaps the worst is over. Wetherspoons' recently announced numbers certainly came as a pleasant surprise. Whatever their cause, however the like-for-likes may be interpreted, the fact that the company turned in such a performance in today's market gave rise to some comfort in the Square Mile.

Not everyone is convinced, however. Douglas Jack of Numis Securities is one who thinks the pigeons of VAT hikes and rising personal taxation will have well and truly come home to roost in the second half of next year.

Meanwhile, government claims that the economy is getting better cut little ice with small businesses desperate to borrow at reasonable rates of interest.

Even with a general election barely eight months away the future is not bright enough to wear shades just yet.