A leading peer has predicted Business Secretary Peter Mandelson will refer the beer tie to the Competition Commission.
Speaking at today's Fair Pint Summit in Parliament, Lord Razzall - the Liberal Democrat's business spokesman in the Lords - said he asked Mandelson about whether he would follow the advice of the Business and Enterprise Committee and implement a Competition Commission probe.
Although no clear indication was given, Mandelson's response was "anodyne", Razzall said. "He tends to be anodyne if he's going to say yes. If he is going to say no he tends to be rude!
Addressing Fair Pint and other anti-pubco campaigners, he added: "My guess is he will refer to the Competition Commission so long as you keep up pressure with the Government that this issue won't go away and it could cost you votes.
"There's one thing that can sway Government ministers: the idea that votes could be lost."
Leading Fair Pint campaigner Karl Harrison that the on-going ALMR-instigated mediation process to reform the trade is "extremely welcome, as long as it's used in good faith and not some excuse to avoid reference to the Competition authorities".
He warned: "Voluntary change is good but it was asked for in 2004 (by the Trade and Industry Select Committee) but not delivered."
Harrison said any proposal has "got to be enforceable in the form of undertakings to the competition authorities or by a mandatory code".
ALMR boss Nick Bish said mediation has a "fighting chance" of success.
Harrison added that plans for a BII-led low-cost rent review process is a "welcome move so long as it provides real justice, not just cheaper injustice".
Pubcos and the beer tie came under attack during the meeting, with Southport MP John Pugh calling the tie a "broken political model" and saying reform is in "everybody's interests".
He raised the idea that pubco bosses are really just interested in selling off pubs for development. "I sincerely hope they are not thinking that but I speculate as to whether that's the case."
"The way forward has to be relaxation of the tie and empowerment of the tenant."
Surveyor David Morgan said the rent review process is stacked against the tenant, with pubcos unwilling to negotiate and set a fair rent.
"At the end of the day you have to be able to supply a basic living wage. If not you're not doing that you will squeeze the pips until they actually bleed."