Beer volumes rose 2.8% in April on last year as pubs enjoyed a good Easter trade but analysts are taking a cautious view.
The figures provided by Nielsen, take stats from 11 managed house companies. However, the comparables with last year are soft as Easter fell outside of April — April 2008 saw a volume drop of 16.6%.
Cider continues to be a major player area for managed houses with volumes up 16% on last year for the four weeks to 2 May. Soft drink volumes rose 6% while spirits remained at the same level.
However, drinks deals seem to have cost margin as volumes grew. "Value is not ahead of volume by much, as the managed operators really drive the value message with keen food and drink pricing and they continue to hit the leased and tenanted sector," said Nielsen client services manager Gavin Humphreys.
"You'd also have to assume that they are taking money off food, as punters still want to go out, but need to watch the pounds."
Analyst Mark Brumby of Blue Oar Securities took a more cautious view. "We would suggest that whilst the headline number looks good, April may well go down as a disappointment.
"The sun shone, we had Easter, the consumer (if he's kept his job) has never been so well off, and this is the best that we can do.
"In addition, there's a degree of polarization in favour of the big managed houses going on out there. Mitchells & Butlers pointed out that 750 of its pubs are selling beer at less than £2 a pint, Marston's managed outlets are doing well and JDW is a permanent value player so somebody must be not doing very well at all.
"With that in mind and in light of the suggestions that May is not shaping up to be that good a month, we remain somewhat cautious and consider the potential for a double dip remains a real one."