Industry experts: pub predictions for 2009
A panel of industry experts and top brass have spoken to the Morning Advertiser about their hopes and fears for 2009 — now we want your predictions.
One in four pubs to close over next few yearsMark Hunter, chief executive of Coors Brewers
"Our sense is that over the next five to 10 years a bottom tier of pubs [will] become unsustainable. Up to 25% of pubs could end up closing because they're either in poor locations or they have an infrastructure that doesn't allow them to evolve properly.
The good news is that the pubs that have a clear hospitality proposition will flourish."
Pub closures to accelerate but the best will thriveJonathan Neame, chief executive of Shepherd Neame
"The year ahead promises substantial economic challenges, particularly in the first six months.
As customers are increasingly affected by the downturn, the rate of pub closures in the UK looks set to accelerate. We envisage that opportunities may arise for further expansion towards the end of the year.
This year offers the opportunity to present the positive side of the pub. It is vital that the trade and its customers get behind the Axe the Beer Tax campaign."
Lack of credit and consumer confidence are keyPaul Wells, managing director of Charles Wells
"We've got two really important issues. One is the lack of credit. The other is lack of consumer confidence. Competition for bank loans will be really tough. I think banks will respond to people who have a really good business plan. The lack of consumer confidence is going to make our customers more choosy about where they will spend their money. I predict pubs will close if they don't do things properly."
Good operators will shineChris Lewis, BII Licensee of the Year
"I think 2009 is the year for good operators,
for people who have spent money on training, run good food operations and know what they are doing. For some of the bad operators, their doors will close in January, February and March. Get January and February out of the way and trade will go up because people don't like saving — hopefully they will want to go to the great British pub."
No new empires in constructionPaul Smith, executive director of Noctis
"No-one is talking about building new empires in 2009. My prediction is for people to just try and stay in business, not do anything spectacular. There will be some operators going to the wall across the on-trade. That's a fact in the market at the moment, which is very tough. There will be increasing issues around premiumisation. There's a strong sense that if you get the offer right you can run a decent business, even in this market."
Reasons to be cheerful…Ian Payne, chairman, Town & City Pub Co and Bay Restaurants
"I think there are a number of bright spots — three in particular. Firstly, it will be a very good year for UK tourism because a lot of people from this country will not be going abroad because of the weakness of the pound compared to the Euro and the dollar. The second positive thing is that statistically, we can't have a third consecutive bad summer. And in July we will be two years into the smoking ban and all the evidence from Scotland and Ireland is that the first two years are the worst and after that trade begins to recover. I don't think it's going to be an easy year, but there will be positives."
Expect beer price hikesGraham Page, analyst for Nielsen
"My feeling last year was that there would inevitably be two price increases [from brewers] and sometimes three. I think that's certainly true for 2009. Maintaining cashflow is going to be the issue for licensees in 2009, certainly if they are not freehold and have rent along with a billion other things to pay."
At least we know where we areNick Bish, chief executive of the Association of Licensed Multiple Retailers
"I think this is the year for belt tightening but a smile costs nothing and we need to look after our customers. I'm sure price rises will cause problems. Inflation will come down but that doesn't mean the cost of everything will fall — the weakness of the pound means imports will be expensive.
I'm afraid there will be sensibly-run businesses that are on the margin that will be pushed over the edge because of a lack of availability of money from banks. On the bright side, we know where we are. We are seeing the pain but we know what the situation is and we can do something about it."
Minimum pricing and foreign satellite victoryJohn Grogan, chairman of the All-Party Parliamentary Beer Group and MP for Selby
"1) The Scottish Government will fix a minimum price of alcohol, but it will be challenged in the courts
2) The Premier League will lose its court case in the European Court of Justice regarding the showing of football from EU satellites in British pubs
3) Liverpool will win the Premiership"
Focus on standardsKevin Georgel, operations director at Punch Taverns
"Following two poor years, a much improved spring and summer would help the trade enormously. This is particularly true for tourist areas. Licensees are encouraged to go back to basics, ensuring their pub is the centre of their community and relevant to existing and new customers. This will involve new ideas and activities in response to changing consumer needs. Punch's support initiatives, designed to help licensees drive footfall and sales, have to be underpinned by superb standards, excellent service and value for money delivered consistently."
Give us your predictions for 2009. Click Post a comment below.
