Just how deep is the crisis facing the pub industry? The question exercised most of the speakers at yesterday's Publican conference Driving Footfall.
Francis Patton, former customer services director for Punch Taverns who is now a non-executive director at Liverpool's Cains Brewery, kicked off the debate with a relatively optimistic scenario.
"There will be some pub closures but not the 5,000 or 10,000 people have talked about," he said. "I think we are looking at no more than about 2,000 closures over the next five years."
He questioned whether outside forces, such as the smoking ban, supermarket pricing and duty rises, really were to blame for the 18 per cent fall in pub beer barrelages over the last 12 months, "or have we taken our eye off the ball?
"I could take you to a lot of pubs that haven't been invested in, that simply aren't very good. We haven't imposed standards in the way other industries have."
People have been turning to alternatives to fill the 'third space' between work and home, he explained, including cinemas, coffee shop chains such as Starbucks and even websites like Second Life, which offers virtual pub crawls.
"All this represents an opportunity that licensees can grab and make their businesses sing."
Change is needed, he said, but it's "not about revolution but getting the basics right".
"There's always a market for a pub. You'll see some close, but not a total decline. People want to relax, have a laugh. They want stimulation, safety and security. And there's nowhere better to talk about what's going on in the world than the pub."
In the debate that closed the day, Mike Clist, operations director for Fuller's tenancies, was less optimistic about how many pubs would survive.
"I really do believe there will be a lot of closures," he said. "There are 15 pubs in Aldershot high street, where I live, so say you get rid of 10 and multiply that across the country… But I don't think it's anything to be scared of."
Geronimo Inns commercial director Ed Turner looked forward to any shake-out of inferior operations.
"I think there are 5,000 pubs too many in this country," he said. "If we could turn them into nice pubs it would give the rest of us a better chance. "