Write-downs on the High Street

It is not exactly clear what prompted Cognetas to write down the value of its investment in Tiger Tiger operator Novus Leisure. Rivals have long suggested the private equity firm overpaid for the business, but then they would, wouldn't they?

Still, it's an understatement to say it would be 'interesting' to appreciate the basis of the latest valuation - £20m - versus its initial investment of nearly £80m.

Buying Novus in late 2005 meant Cognetas was immediately forced to contend with the impact of new licensing legislation that allowed pubs to entertain many of its potential customers for longer. There's no doubt this may indeed have dented takings.

Then there's the '7/7 bombings' argument, although personally I don't buy it. I recall many London bars being packed within days of the attacks, punters more than happy to stick two fingers up to the extremists.

Tiger Tiger works well in London, and while it hasn't taken off outside the capital quite as much as either operator or owner would have liked, the Novus management team are recognised as a quality bunch, even by rivals.

But the High Street, as many operators know all too well, is an unforgiving place. Whatever the cause of its reassessment, it would seem that Cognetas' investment strategy has been thrown off kilter for the time being.

Trading its way out of the situation is its only option. At least it has a decent brand on its books.

Gloom and boom

The first winter for English pubs under the smoking ban looms and many licensees are worried.

Shepherd Neame's chief executive Jonathan Neame, announcing his company's annual results last week, said he believed the first winter of the ban would be a testing time for the industry, but that year two would see a modest recovery, while years three to five would see a decent turnaround.

He also argued that pubs have been around for a long time; that "one winter won't kill off the trade", and that the long-term prognosis for smoke-free pubs "is very, very good". I think he has a point. But feel free to disagree…