Cask-ale volumes are predicted to return to growth within the next few years as regional and independent brewers continue to gain market share from the multi-national beer giants.
Sales by regional and independent brewers are currently growing at an average of 7.5% per year, with one out of every three pints of ale sold in the UK now cask products, according to the first annual cask-ale report produced by the industry.
The report, compiled from input supplied by cask-beer stakeholders with data verified by market analyst AC Nielsen, puts total cask-ale volumes at 2.4 million barrels per year accounting for a market now worth £1.4bn.
The trend indicates national cask-ale losses driven by the national brewers, currently running at 5%, is slowly being arrested thanks to the determination of regional and family brewers, and the emergence of no less than 160 new independent and micro breweries which have opened over the past two years.
The report was written using data available up to the end of January 2007 and takes no account of a reported surge in cask-ale sales this summer, which is predicted to swell overall volumes still further by next year.
"This report confirms all the trends and indications we have been receiving over the past two years or so, which point to volume gains by the regional independent sector now balancing losses reported by the nationals," said Paul Nunny, director of beer quality auditor Cask Marque.
"Our data indicates the national brewers are responsible for 80% of cask-ale losses, but the rate of decline is slowing as the independents increasingly pump up the image of the sector," he said.
"The idea is for this report to become an annual event so we can measure the state of the sector year on year and detect what influences are driving the market," he added.
The excise duty tax advantages enjoyed by small producers brewing less than 36,000 barrels per year has also stimulated the real-ale market.
"Take the big four (national brewers) out of the picture and you have a market that suddenly looks astonishingly vibrant," says the report.
l The report entitled "The Intelligent Choice" - The True State Of The Market For Cask Ale In 2007 is compiled by beer writer Pete Brown.
Groups behind the report include the Society of Independent Brewers, Independent Family Brewers of Britain, the Campaign for Real Ale, the Cask Marque Trust and AC Nielsen.