Wet weather worse than smoke ban

It was the smoking ban that the pub trade feared. But wet weather has had a bigger impact on trade this summer. Tony Halstead reports

Licensees are coming to terms with what is being described as one of the wettest summers on record, with pub visits down and sales of draught lager and beer taking a battering.

The monsoon month of June saw the on-trade hit particularly badly when unprecedented rainfall affected all parts of the country. It was followed by severe flooding in parts of South Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire, Shropshire, Worcestershire and Gloucestershire in July.

Sales of standard lager were 12.5% down in June while ale volumes dipped by 9% according to the British Beer & Pub Association (BBPA). Hosts are clinging to the hope that weather prospects will now improve, which could see Britain basking in an Indian summer through to the end of October.

Many licensees see this as the only hope of salvaging what has so far been a disastrous summer trading period. The effect of the wet weather on trade has been compounded by the absence of any major soccer tournament this summer which would have drawn huge TV audiences into pubs and bars.

Many pub operators are also trying to decide what proportion of the sales downturn is due to the weather and what contribution is down to the July smoking ban.

Disastrous summer season

Licensed trade research consultants CGA Strategy said volume and rate-of-sale figures for June were "disastrous", with July little better. Chief executive Jon Collins said: "Gains made during the fine weather of April and May have been totally cancelled out by the downturn in June and July.

"In general terms the trade is suffering from extremely volatile conditions, with the smoking ban adding to the industry's problems."

Managing director of Marston's Inns & Taverns Derek Andrew described the last few months as extraordinary. "In 27 years of working in the trade I have never experienced anything quite as bad as this," he said. The company saw 150 pubs affected by flooding across its tenanted and managed estates and at the height of the rainfall 12 pubs were closed.

"Three houses are still unable to trade and are so badly damaged that we have decided to bring forward next year's refurbishment budgets and do the work now," he revealed.

Andrew said rain was traditionally the pub trade's worst enemy. "It does not have to rain that badly to make people stay at home.

"When people stay away, pubs with beer gardens and outside facilities inevitably suffer the most. For some pubs the outdoors is their biggest trading area and, in effect, they are losing up to 25% of their trading space when the heavens open. On top of all this you have to weigh up the fact that last summer was a heat wave and we had the World Cup."

He added: "When you feed in the possible effects of the smoking ban, it's certain that three different forces have combined to work against the trade."

Food-led houses and destination venues appear to have fared worst, thanks to the prolonged heavy rainfall. Managing director of north-west pub operator Mitchell's of Lancaster, Jonathan Barker, said sales at the company's catering houses had been hit. "People just do not bother to go out when the weather is bad and we have found our pubs with big beer gardens have suffered most. Community pubs, however, have rallied well and have traded very resiliently," Barker said.

Boss of Nottingham-based Tynemill, Chris Holmes, said his 17 pubs fared reasonably well, despite the bad weather. "The rain obviously did not help, but business has been better than perhaps we might have feared."

He added: "I think destination pubs and those on the high street have suffered worst, particularly as there has been no major football on TV. The one comfort is that locals pubs do not seem to have suffered in quite the same way."

Battling on despite the odds

Steve Turner, boss of pub operator Moyo, which runs houses in Lancashire, Cheshire and Staffordshire, described trade as mixed.

"Sales were actually up in two of our pubs but static in the other two, so it's been a bit of a mixed bag," he said.

Sales director of northern brewer Daniel Thwaites, Brian Jenkins, said sales had suffered thanks to the downfalls. "It's not been that bad, despite what the weather has thrown at us. We have managed to come through, although things have hardly been fantastic."

Federation of Licensed Victuallers Asso-ciations chief executive Tony Payne said that licensees had gone through a grim time.

Many of the association's members run pubs in some of the worst flooded areas around Sheffield, Doncaster and Rotherham. "Last June and July were the hottest for many years, while this year the same two months have been the wettest," he said. "Some licensees have had a disastrous time while others have traded reasonably well in the circumstances.

"Some houses have managed to do well simply because rival pubs in the area have been closed due to the floods."

Chief executive of the Association of Licensed Multiple Retailers Nick Bish described the general trade atmosphere as "sombre".

"It is clear pub customers have been reluctant to turn out because of the weather. But it's been a mixed picture across the trade, with the actual flooding a more specific issue for the pubs affected," he said.

long-range forecast predicts indian summer

A spell of warmer, sunnier conditions are predicted by BBC weather forecasters from the start of this weekend.

Conditions are expected to settle down appreciably by this Saturday, particularly in the south of England, although temperatures may struggle to reach the seasonal average.

From next Monday, however, conditions are set to improve still further across the whole of England and Wales, with showers and breezy conditions largely disappearing. The improvement is likely to be maintained into the following weekend, and the week beginning 27 August should see decent levels of sunshine and better temperatures.

The beginning of September is predicted to herald far warmer and sunnier conditions lasting the whole of the first week at least. Euro 2008 qualifiers and the Rugby World Cup (see p27-28) also hold the prospect of improved trade next month.

community locals weather the storms most effectively

Many licensees say trade has held up remarkably well, despite the dual impacts of the wet weather and the smoking ban. But hosts confirm it is the community local that has managed to trade through the crisis most effectively. Host Mike Fallon of the Theatre Bar, Barrow-in-Furness, said business had been up to normal levels.

"The bad weather has not kept people out of pubs in the town centre. It's the outlying, more rural houses that appear to have gone quiet. It's not been a great summer for us, but we have not done too badly under the circumstances," he said.

Licensee Bob Findlay, who runs the Sun, in Windlesham, Surrey, said sales had been down but the summer had not been a disaster. "Our beer garden has been very quiet and trade has also been hit because parts of the village were flooded for a time. We have lost customers through the smoking ban which has to be weighed into the general picture," he said.

Host Dave Parker at the Shoulder of Mutton, in Castleford, West Yorkshire, said beer sales had remained steady. "Many outlying villages have suffered, but we have escaped intact and cask-beer business has held up," he said. Pubs in the tourist areas of the Fylde Coast in Lancashire actually saw trade increase despite the monsoon-like conditions.

Ian Rigg, of the Taps, Lytham, said his business tended to get a boost when bad weather arrived. Blackpool licensee Dave Daly, who runs the town's Castle pub, added: "Rain is good for pubs in the resort because people dive inside for cover. It means they are enjoying a beer instead of eating ice cream on the promenade."