Economically, the South East is something of a curate's egg. In parts it has the highest spending power in the UK, if not Europe, elsewhere, the highest levels of social deprivation and symptoms of economic decline. The economic powerhouse of London widens the gap between rich and poor and changes consumer behaviour and expectations in its wake.
With increasing affluence the surprise, perhaps, is that the consumer today is more motivated by traditional values than a compulsion for the next 'new' thing. A decade ago traditional pub operators had serious doubts about how to compete with the high street juggernaut and the move to light, airy, fashionable bars. But an equilibrium has been found as consumers are again motivated by localness, a sense of community and desire for authenticity, or 'real' experiences.
Regional and local produce - whether in the food or the drink offer - is a key consideration, and the South East, in particular Kent, has a rich food and drink heritage to exploit. This is an area where a good local pub can provide a more interesting offer than the supermarket by offering Sussex beef, Romney Marsh lamb or Kentish strawberries.
Drinkers are increasingly looking for speciality and local beers. Wine, on the back of food growth, has enjoyed double-digit performance for more than a decade. And who would have thought it - 20 years after the Mateus phenomenon, rosé is back with a vengeance! One part of the offer that is going through substantial change is soft drinks which, until now, has not received the attention it deserves. At last there are some excellent, innovative products on the market that meet adult consumers' desire for more natural or interesting flavours.
The local angle
One of the strategies traditional pubs pursued 10 years ago to compete with the high street was to go 'gastro'. All too often this meant over-ambitious menus, over-fancy presentation and prices that only attracted the occasional visitor. Now I think the trend is moving in the opposite direction - simpler food, well priced, using fresh and local ingredients.
Incredibly, today's pub diners can expect to pay less for the average main course or Sunday roast than in the early 1990s. Though there is more affluence in the South East, value for money remains a key part of the decision making process. Just because you have more money in your pocket doesn't mean you are more willing to part with it!
Good prospects
But I do not subscribe to the view that food is the only survival strategy. More than ever I think people want a sense of belonging and of local identity and I remain very optimistic about the future of the well-run community pub with individuality, character, excellent beer and a welcoming licensee. Ambience can attract drinkers as much as food, and who's to say music, pool, quiz nights, even darts cannot continue to attract a large market?
There is a difficulty, especially in rural areas, in finding good staff, in particular chefs. We must hope the smoking ban will open a bigger pool of potential recruits to the pub. One can only wonder how many people have been put off joining our trade by the negative images of recent years.
Prospects in the South East are very good. The ban is a great opportunity to put pubs back at the heart of the community - drinkers, eaters, games players, romantics, young and old, rich and poor. Pubs are most successful when they attract all sectors of society, not just an element of it.
Jonathan Neame is chief executive of Kent brewer Shepherd Neame