Surveys, surveys, and more surveys

Against a backdrop of rising interest rates, shaky consumer confidence and the depressing prospect of there being another two months before the start of the football season, the latest Bank of Scotland (BoS) 'Small Business Confidence' index survey makes for an interesting read.

Outlining as it does small businesses' take on the UK economy over the next 12 months there are more statistics than you can shake a slide rule at. But it's a classic case of choosing the data to suit the argument.

On one hand, of the 1,000 firms with less than £1m annual turnover a year polled, 40 per cent reckon the coming year will see general economic conditions worsen. That's not good. But when set against 14 per cent who think matters will improve and 39 per cent who say things will stay just as they are, it doesn't seem so bad. A quarter of businesses believe they will see double-digit growth in 2007, the survey trumpets. So three quarters reckon they won't. Darn it. It all depends how you want to view things.

Similarly, there are 'Merchants of Doom' who believe interest rates will rise cripplingly in the coming months, while those who've been drinking from the 'Happy Well' reckon rates won't go that much higher.

Yet the BoS survey concludes that despite concerns about the overall UK economy, Britain's entrepreneurs are confident about their own prospects. This reminds me of those many brewers who acknowledge that beer sales are generally in decline, but say they themselves are growing market share.

While mathematically fanciful, I suppose the idea of everyone growing market share in a declining market is better than everyone losing market share in a declining market. Which offers a rationale, of sorts, for business confidence surveys…