Real-ale sales will bounce back over the next five years - that was the confident prediction made at the annual members' meeting of Camra, the Campaign for Real Ale, in Wolverhampton at the weekend.
In a wide-ranging presentation to more than 1,000 members at the conference, chief executive Mike Benner showed that sales of cask beer had fallen by 61% between 1995 and 2005. The major cause of the decline of real ale in the on- trade, Benner said, was the almost total abandonment of the sector by the "big four" global brewers operating in Britain.
The major players in the sector today are Marston's, Greene King and Wells & Young's, closely followed by Fuller's. Small independents, represented by Society of Independent Brewers, account for no more than 1% or 2% of total beers sales. But they have an impressive 18% share of the cask-ale market and have seen sales jump by 70% in the past five years.
Benner's figures revealed that 6% of adults regularly drink cask beer and 83% of that figure is made up of people over the age of 35. They are most likely to live in Eastern England, London, the Midlands and Yorkshire.
Rising cask sales will be driven by the fact that an ageing population will include more people dedicated to cask, people with higher disposable incomes will be attracted to premium beers and the "green generation" will support beers made and sourced locally and requiring few "food miles".
Guest speaker Ralph Findlay, chief executive of Marston's, was less enthusiastic about a revival of cask sales over the next five years but agreed the sector, though small, was safe in the hands of committed national, regional and small craft producers.
He added that food would drive the recovery of the industry and the smoke ban offered pub owners the opportunity to attract new customers.