"To a large degree, consumers have now taken control of the on-trade market and are not prepared to simply accept what is put before them. The success of RTDs is not necessarily based on the big eating the small. Innovation is what will win sales and it will be the fast that eat the slow by reaching out and communicating with consumers on their terms."
This is the opinion of Graham Abbot, director of Box Marketing, a specialist marketing company. And this view seems to hit the nail on the head as to what is happening in the marketplace. The brands that are offering something defined or different are the ones that are succeeding. And there are two brands in particular that have demonstrated this: WKD and Bacardi Breezer.
WKD is now the number one brand in the category, with 35 per cent market share. According to brand owner Beverage Brands, WKD's growth is totally organic. "Our growth is incremental, and is not a result of other brands falling away and us stealing their market share," says brand controller Deborah Carter.
The WKD story is impressive. Hardly coming from the biggest drinks company in the world, the brand has got bigger simply through the success of their marketing. While some might find their print and TV advertising a little close to the bone, it certainly has hit home with their target audience, and Deborah said they have no desire to change it.
"We have stuck to our guns with our marketing because, quite simply, it works. We are now experiencing five per cent MAT growth - how many other brands can say that? We have got our hands on a winning formula."
Deborah believes WKD's success is built on its connection with on-trade built up over the past decade. "It works because we engage our customer, both through above the line advertising and local activity. We invest more now in pubs than we ever have done. Pubs need that kind of activity, otherwise you are offering the customer nothing."
WKD has proved that clever, sustained marketing can get you through tough trading times. Not everyone may approve of how they have done it - but even rival brand owners respect their efforts.
Adam Irvine from Diageo is certainly one of these. "WKD has stuck at what it is good at - which is as the more traditional RTD. And there is nothing wrong with that as there are still many young drinkers looking for that 'big night out'," he says.
Bacardi Breezer also has a fascinating story to tell. After suffering a pretty torrid time in the past two years, the most recent set of AC Nielsen statistics showed the former number one brand was back in growth. There has been a 43 per cent increase in Bacardi Breezer sales in July 2006 compared to the same four-week period in 2005.
This is pretty phenomenal given that its image had taken a serious kicking in recent years. One pub company buyer told me last year that Bacardi Breezer had completely lost its brand equity because it had become the kind of drink "your mum would drink".
One of the reasons Breezer has recovered so well has been the introduction of its Half Sugar range. In doing this, Bacardi has, as Graham put it earlier, "reached out and communicated with consumers on their terms".
There has been a greater call from drinkers for healthier, lower sugar drinks. And here Bacardi has delivered, and the company believes the innovation has had a big impact on RTD sales.
"To date, the new variants have been incredibly successful in achieving all of these objectives driving consumer demand for a category that has seen a lot of negative news over the past 18 months," said Fraser McGuire, senior trade marketing manager at Bacardi.
A licensee's perspective
Frank Cobb, the Holmbush Inn, St Austell, Cornwall
"The pub has changed hands in the past few years, but it still gets in the young crowd it always used to - but just not as much. For example I did about seven cases of RTDs yesterday, a Sunday, alone. But I used to do 15 not long ago. And when I worked in a student pub in Southampton for Greene King four years ago I used to get through 150 cases a week.
"You always have to have them - you can't get rid of them, but we have cut down the choices. Ithink the market has declined a bit - it is certainly not as popular as it was.
"We are stocking Quinns now and after a very slow start it is showing progress. It is more of a lunchtime drink and is more popular with women.
"RTDs are never going to go away, but it certainly isn't the fad it used to be with stupid prices and deals.
"Now we will sell them at about £2.85 a bottle and that is an effort by the brand owners to help improve their image, and I think that is great."