There is absolutely no doubt now that a considerable number of 'licensed premises will not be in a position to trade legally on 24 November this year.
I do not just mean pubs: I think most existing pub landlords will have got the message by now, although there are bound to be a few stragglers.
No, I mean quite a few un-informed or misinformed individuals who think that their operation either does not need a new-style licence, or that the permission they already have will continue to be in force.
There will also, by all accounts, be a number of licensees who missed the cut on 6 August and who, for one reason or another, are delaying their application for a new licence until very late in the day. Some of this may be due to the fact that the application involves a considerable outlay for a pub with a rateable value of, say, £20,000, the cost, including the obligatory advertising in the local newspaper, is in the region of £450.
Then there is the form to fill in and send off to all the responsible authorities, even if they are only applying for what they have now. The form appears complex to those who are unused to this type of thing in spite of what licensing minister James Purnell says, it is daunting to try to complete 15 pages properly, and to attempt a minor essay on the licensing objectives, which is what last-minute applicants will have to do.
It is difficult to assess whether the anti-trade campaign in some newspapers will cause a greater number of objections to be raised with these new applications, now that people have 'missed the boat with the transition ones. So far, local licensing authorities have appeared to be scrupulously fair in deciding whether or not an objection is valid, with only one or two reports from disgruntled licensees who suspect collusion with local councillors. Clearly, some pubs which have had a track-record of confrontation with the community are not going to find it as easy as the friendly neighbourhood local that everyone loves.
But the new applications cannot rely on the past: in effect, as I wrote last week in reply to a reader, you start from scratch. You have to prove your right to exist all over again, and you must spell out, in line with the published local licensing policy, the ways you intend to meet the licensing objectives.
If you do not put in enough, then representations may be made by one or more of the responsible authorities. In some areas, these bodies are producing A4 lists of obligations, even in respect of the protection of children, which some licensees may find quite inhibiting.
Remember, too, that if the representations are valid you may have to attend a hearing and put your case to the councillors. Once they are involved, you might not get exactly what you requested, even allowing for the fact that there will be an additional delay while the date of the hearing is arranged. Although most local authorities are working hard to catch up on the inevitable backlog caused by late transitional applications, there could be some parts of the country where you might not get heard until November.
So I repeat my warning of last week that now is not the time to delay. If you have missed the cut-off point, do not be fooled into thinking that 24 November is a long time away. It isn't, and every time you read my page, it is another week closer and you haven't done anything!