As many as four in 10 pubs could face closure in November for failing to apply for their new licences in time.
Local authority workers and licensing lawyers attending a conference in London this week said they expected only 60 per cent of pubs would hold a valid licence by the start of the new regime on November 24.
But Andrew Cunningham, head of licensing at the Department for Culture, Media & Sport (DCMS), sought to play down fears, saying a crisis was "not inevitable".
Despite admitting that as of June 24 fewer than one in five existing licensees had applied for their new licences, he told delegates there was still time to avert predicted chaos.
He said: "Of course we're concerned. No minister would do the amount of work that James Purnell has done - 44 media interviews in the past few weeks - if he wasn't concerned. But if you're asking me if it's inevitable that there will be chaos, no I don't think it is inevitable."
But he failed to respond to a request from conference chairman Jeremy Allen of solicitors Poppleston-Allen, to explain how the government would handle pub closures if licences are not in place by November 24.
Commenting after the event Mr Allen said: "The decision will rest with the Prime Minister - and any Prime Minister faced with a decision like this is not going to want to close a lot of pubs and clubs in the run-up to Christmas."
Applications for grandfather rights must be submitted by August 6, or publicans face having to apply for their licences from scratch before the Second Appointed Day (SAD) on November 24. Any pub without one of the new licences by this day will be forced to close, but Mr Cunningham vowed there would be no delay to the SAD, despite the lack of applications so far.
"The SAD will not be delayed," he said. "Businesses which do not get their applications in will be at risk. If anyone misses the boat, their competitors will do rather well."
Speaking at the conference, solicitor Matthew Phipps of TLT Solicitors blamed many of the problems with the new Act on the government. He highlighted the series of delays in January over fees and regulations.
"Even the people who were geared up for it were significantly prejudiced by the late arrival of these regulations, and, in some cases, by the complexity of them," he said.
"The changes after the consultation were significant and were one of the reasons for the delay."
The DCMS is launching a new leaflet campaign aimed at spurring licensees into getting in their applications in the weeks leading up to August 6. They are being distributed via cash and carry depots and local authorities.
The Publican says
As we approach the August 6 deadline for licensees to protect their grandfather rights, the best estimates are that only 20 per cent have applied.
Why not? The message is simple - if you don't apply to transfer your existing licence you risk closure.
You will find it much more difficult to apply for a new licence from scratch before November 24.
If you haven't applied for your new licence yet, do it.
- For a full guide to filling out your premises and personal licence application forms, click here.