We are now just into the fifth month of the six-month transition period and only the most incurable optimist, a member of the Department of Culture, Media & Sport staff, or a newly-appointed Government minister, could think everything is "on track" for the reform process.
There is no doubt that applications will start to increase, because they have to. I understand that a number of operating companies are scheduled to move things along over the next few weeks, but there is still a considerable reluctance to "show their hand" in terms of what is being requested.
But a greater problem lies in the generally muddled view, which I dealt with last week, on what constitutes the conditions of an old licence and the conditions of a new one. No-one, it seems, is entirely sure.
My writings about "embedded conditions" have generated quite a reaction, from those who think there are no such things to those who do not understand at all and are asking for further and better particulars.
I wish I could give them. The idea is that an existing licence has certain conditions attached to the "licensable activities" that ought to be replicated in the new, unvaried premises licence. This does not mean that the converted premises licence is run in exactly the same way as under the 1964 Licensing Act, but that conditions laid out in that Act should be attached to the new premises licence under the 2003 Act.
What confuses the issue somewhat is that a brand new premises licence granted before the Second Appointed Day will not have those conditions attached, because in some ways the law has been freed up. One example is that it will not be a requirement to provide music, dancing and substantial refreshment after 11pm in order to gain additional hours. But a straight converted licence with a special hours certificate will initially have to comply with those conditions.
A similar situation is said to occur in the case of children under 14 in the bar. But as I am not completely convinced that such a restriction is an embedded condition, because it does not apply to an existing licensable activity, I have to confess that I prefer the reasoning that the law has been relaxed and that children can be in the bar, as long as they are accompanied under the age of 16.
But the application form itself is entirely deficient in terms of getting rid of these "embedded conditions", unless you simply state, as some have done in the first box on the variation form, that your intention is "to remove all embedded conditions".
And why not? The whole point of this reform package is to get shot of the "antiquated licensing laws", not preserve them. The idea is that the 1964 Act, the old-style entertainment laws and the bizarre late-night refreshment house conditions should be swept away. But apparently not yet.
It sounded very good all those months ago, didn't it? Vigorous trade campaigning had managed to ensure that you would get what you had: so-called grandfather rights. Now, it appears, those very rights are going to be a bit of a millstone as the torrent of variation applications comes through, and certain local authorities take a stern line on what constitutes the conditions under which your converted licence should operate.
It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that going for a brand new premises licence and thereby removing at a stroke all fuss about old conditions and restrictions might not be the better option for an increasing number of premises: as long as you are assured that yours are not in an area where licences can be limited.