The Publican Conference

A round-up of opinion from the major industry players who spoke at last week's Publican Conference 2003.

Dennis Turner: the economy​

The biggest risk to the economy is to believe that there's a recession on its way. That was the message of a lively presentation from Dennis Turner, chief economist at the HSBC bank.

He began by admitting that the economic conditions under which pub operators are trying to succeed are "very confusing".

"There have been storm clouds for the last few years", he said, citing rising public sector borrowing, the stock market collapse, a slowdown in economic activity and record levels of personal debt.

But "there is a new resilience to the UK economy because of a rate of inflation that is the lowest in Europe," he concluded. "You all want stability and inflation is the key."

There has been continuous economic growth since 1992, a cumulative 36 per cent increase that has brought rising livings standards.

Nervousness stems, however, from Britain's "two-speed economy" in which services are growing while manufacturing is in decline, hampering the UK's ability to compete in the world market.

"We are more dependent on consumers and we've seen the best of them - people are not earning as much as they were in real terms. But that does not mean the economy will topple over into recession."

Mr Turner predicted that the final result of these competing factors would be that the economy would remain "the same". "That may be dull and boring but it's meant to be - that's what stability means. The big risk to the economy is a mental condition. If we believe there's going to be a recession and behave as if there's going to be a recession it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy.

"But there is a lot to be positive about."

Geof Collyer: the pub sector​

Looking at the pub industry in more detail, Geof Collyer, Deutsche Bank's pub analyst, noted that it now boasts the highest quality earnings in the leisure sector across Europe as far as investors are concerned.

"Pubs have been a good place to invest," he said. "The important thing is that they generate cash."

On the continuing debate over whether tenanted or managed pubs make the best investment, Mr Collyer said that while tenanted houses were resilient, managed estates had to make sure they had "the right management teams in place".

Pub operators had to cope with many pressures, he said - including competition on the high street and off-trade pricing - which means that investing in refurbishment has to be carefully judged.

"The golden rule is that if you need to raise prices to make it work, don't do it."

He predicted that tenanted giants Enterprise and Punch "should be able to deliver mid-teens growth by managing their cash flow".

"The long-term winners will be those companies which consistently generate cash, backed by solid assets and good management," he said.

Managed melancholy​

The problems on the high street have been exacerbated by City investors, said Peter Hansen of PC Hansen & Co.

He believes that City pressure on pub companies to grow has led to a situation where too much money was invested in high street sites.

"The City and investors were enamoured by brands and too much money was going in the mid-1990s," he said.

Andy Turbutt, director of Corporate Leisure Team, Royal Bank of Scotland said: "We have to keep the whole thing in perspective. If you look at the high street it is a small percentage of the sites that have experienced trouble."

Although, Colin Wellstead, director of Christie & Co, said: "There are still a lot of people trading well on the high street. We are selling some difficult leases, most by sub-leasing, in some cases to restaurant operators."

The majority of the panel thought that there had been improvements in pub standards and service levels. Andy Turbutt, director of Corporate Leisure Team, Royal Bank of Scotland, said: "I think there has been a significant improvement in service. It's often little things that make a difference. Things such as saying hello and making people feel at home."

But Mr Hansen disagreed. "I want to walk into a pub and not be concerned about beer quality," he said. "Pubs have still got a long way to go in serve quality."

BJ Cunningham: what is your point?​

"What's your point and why should I care?" was the frank marketing maxim from BJ Cunningham, founder of the infamous and hugely successful Death cigarettes.

In an inspirational and extremely well-received speech, BJ urged delegates to throw the rulebook out of the window. "A lot of marketing is about men in fancy suits but the vast majority don't know what they're really doing," he said. "A brand is not a logo or a name, it is a promise that you must be able to deliver. There are no rules. If you have to throw lots of money at people to make them buy your product and use expensive third party agencies then it's probably not going to work."

Mr Cunningham acquired his marketing guru status after taking on the tobacco industry and the European courts with Death cigarettes, a brand with a very straightforward principle. "I realised there was a gap in the market for truth and the truth in tobacco is: if you smoke, you're going to die. My view was that if smoking is going to kill you, then choose Death."

Adorned with a skull and crossbones and a severe health warning, Death cigarettes contrasted heavily with the glamorous world of big tobacco marketing.

"Rather than embrace the health issue, the tobacco industry stuck its head in the sand and arse in the air and then got a good kicking," he added. "We didn't sell a pack of lies, we sold a pack of cigarettes."

Prospects and opportunities for 2004​

Mark Jones of Yates said pubs would compete on the high street if companies paid their staff more. He argued high staff turnover totally undermined investment into staff training. "I think our industry stands accused of under paying and overworking its front line people. How can we expect to attract the best when we pay the lowest pay?"

Meanwhile, James Horler, of La Tasca Restaurants, told the delegates to "think pink" and realise men are irrelevant.

He argued that women now make the key purchasing decisions and in his restaurants form 70 per cent of the clientele. Women should be targeted above all others to make the pub business a success.

Ken Robinson, from Recreation & Tourism, said pubs were missing out on a massive opportunity by not doing enough to appeal to tourists. "The reasons why a local will choose to go into a pub are completely opposite to a foreign tourist," he said.

"What many pubs offer to consumer is unclear. Pubs have huge potential in the tourist market and ignoring this potential is a wasted opportunity."

The big industry debate​

Five industry heavyweights battled it out in the closing debate: Karen Jones, chief executive of the newly expanded Spirit Group, John Sands, executive chairman of Pubmaster until it is absorbed by Punch at the end of the month, Charles Wells managing director Paul Wells, industry commentator Ian Edward and Neil Gillis, the former Greene King Pub Company boss, now head of leisure group Esporta.

Mr Gillis kicked off the discussion in provocative fashi