More than half of licensees expect to see a significant drop in their trading over the next 12 months, says The Publican Market Report 2003. The survey, which asked for the views of licensees from across the country, revealed that 53 per cent are predicting a significant decrease in sales - compared to only three per cent in 2002.
The main reason publicans cite is the current economic climate, although following closely behind are high rents and lack of barrelage discounts.
This pessimistic outlook comes despite more licensees than ever - 73 per cent - revealing their turnover had increased and 64 per cent claiming that profits were up in the past year.
Another alarming figure is the number of licensees experiencing business difficulties. The percentage that say they are struggling has doubled this year to six per cent - if this is mirrored across the industry it means 3,500 pubs are in trouble.
The bleak outlook may have been prompted by the uncertain times licensees face through licensing reform, a possible smoking ban, worries over the economy and rising costs as well as more employment legislation.
Tony Payne, chief executive of the Federation of Licensed Victuallers' Associations, said: "Licensees are definitely worried about the economic climate.
"The increases in National Insurance contributions and council tax means there is less cash in customers pockets to spend in pubs.
"Licensees' costs are also going up with the increase in the minimum wage, employment laws and constant changes in legislation."
David Bishop, spokesman of the Federation for Small Businesses, said: "The odds are stacking up against small businesses and especially those that employ a lot of staff.
"Difficult trading conditions and increases in legislation have brought things to a head for publicans."
The Market Report results also reveal that licensees with greater control over their businesses are doing better than traditional tenants.
The survey also shows that the number of pubs welcoming families with young children has nearly doubled to 84 per cent, the price of beer is up again - but by no more than the rate of inflation - and that publicans work an average of 75 hours a week.
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