The Iraq war and the deadly Sars virus could have a much worse effect on tourism than foot-and-mouth and September 11.
Fewer tourists are travelling to the UK because of fears of a terrorist attack.
Many are fearful of travelling altogether because of severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) virus which has claimed lives in Hong Kong, China, Singapore and Vietnam.
The Tourism Industry Emergency Response (TIER) group, which was set up after September 11, said the double whammy could leave a huge hole in the tourism industry's accounts to the tune of a staggering £2bn - and pubs in tourist areas are bound to suffer.
A TIER spokesman said: "The war in Iraq will certainly have an adverse effect on tourism. There is clear nervousness about travel, particularly from long-haul markets. It is impossible to make accurate predictions until we know the full extent of the conflict, so our estimates are based entirely on the current scenario, previous experience and economic models.
"These indicate that the war in Iraq will cost Britain's inbound tourism industry something in the range of £1.5bn to £2bn this year, a drop of 15 per cent on 2002. These figures are for inbound tourism only. As yet we have no forecasts for domestic tourism within Britain this year."
Johnny Johnston, who runs the Blenheim Inns group of pubs in the Cotswolds, told The Publican Newspaper: "Foot-and-mouth disease initially halved turnover in the first three months because my pubs are situated in rural areas that rely on the local farming community and tourists.
"But I would hope that it wouldn't be the same case because of the war. I'm looking at changing tack and trying to encourage domestic visitors to come to my pubs. There should be a big market in short breaks in the UK."
Tourism chiefs are holding crisis talks with the government urging Chancellor Gordon Brown to plough more money into the sector to ensure its survival.
But there seems little hope as rural publicans are still lobbying the government for their share of £7bn compensation after foot-and-mouth disease ripped their businesses apart.
Spring cheer for business
The war has not dampened the spirits of customers, claim publicans who are reporting a boom in trade thanks to the good weather. However, many said it was still too early to tell whether pubs would suffer over the next few months because of an anticipated drop in tourists.
- Bob Cartwright, director of communications at Six Continents Retail, said: "The extremely good weather of recent weeks has meant that we have been doing very well so it's difficult to say if war itself is having an effect. I think we will have to wait and see."
Neil Gillis, managing director of Greene King Pub Company, said if anything people were going to pubs more than usual to watch and talk about the war. "The same happened after September 11. People want to watch the news and talk about it in the pub," he said.
Giles Thorley, chief executive of Punch Taverns, said: "I can't say that there is any difference because of the war. I'm not sure if people are going to the pub to watch and talk about it. But I do think the recent good weather is helping trade more."
Tony Leonard, who runs the Hop Poles pub in Brighton, said although business was better than last year, he had noticed that there were fewer tourists around. "We get a lot of foreign language students around here and I've certainly seen fewer of them. I think it will get worse because of the war and because of the terrorist threat here," he said.