Pubs and bars could be the first to suffer if consumers are forced to cut-back on spending, says a new report from consultants KPMG.
KPMG's Consumer Spending on Leisure and Holiday Pursuits in 2003 survey reveals that 29 per cent of people would spend less in pubs and bars if they had to cut spending.
People in Scotland were more likely to cut back on going out than anywhere else in the country with 31 per cent claiming they would cut back on going out to pubs and restaurants. In the South and London 30 per cent would cut back, 29 per cent in the Midlands and Wales and 27 per cent in the north of England.
Of those surveyed 51 per cent said they would be cutting their spending in 2003 and 55 per cent believed that the economic prospects for the UK will be slightly worse than 2002.
Michael Coughtrey, partner in leisure at KPMG said: "Going out to pubs is a discretionary expenditure that can easily be cut. Economic uncertainty will catalyse such consumer behaviour."
"Consumers tend to change where and when they drink as opposed to how much, so we could see a rise in off-licence sales and even bootlegging where people will search for cheaper alcohol prices."
Scottish Licensed Trade Association is concerned about the details of the survey as it believes that Scotland already has too many pubs and too many cut-price drinks promotions. Spokesman Paul Waterson said: "If there is a drop off in trade what is going to happen to all theses superpubs. If there is a depressed market the cut-pricing epidemic will get worse and margins will need to be cut."
The research was carried out by YouGov on behalf of KPMG among 1450 adults.