The pub trade is facing up to the prospect this year that the average price of a pint of beer will rise to £3 or more.
Caledonian brewery chief Stephen Crawley already warned last month the £4 pint was on its way because of the increase costs of raw materials.
Now licensees are facing above-inflation increases in wholesale beer prices of brands owned by Scottish & Newcastle UK (S&NUK) and Coors.
S&NUK is increasing prices by 5.7%, while Coors announced a 4.5% rise and warned: "We will not rule out further increases in 2008 if they become necessary".
Unfortunately, there are going to be casualties. I think we'll see a couple of thousand fewer outlets over the next few years.Graham PageAC Nielsen
The rises come into effect on 11 February and are both expressed as duty-exclusive - S&NUK said the increase amounts to about 4.2% for the customer.
The brewers said the increases amount to 4p or 5p on a pint.
20p increase
But AC Nielsen consultant Graham Page predicted pubs could be forced to add up to 20p to a pint this year after pubco increases, duty and VAT are factored in. He said it is "more and more likely" that a £3 pint would become the average in 2008.
S&NUK and Coors both cited above-inflation rises in costs, including energy, barley, metals and glass.
In a letter to customers, S&NUK stressed the rises were "fair and reasonable".
Coors' portfolio activation director David Wigham said: "We have taken a number of actions to try to mitigate these cost increases. Our price rise recognises this and also reflects the significant investment we are making in our brands in 2008 and beyond.
"Despite much higher cost increases than those experienced in previous years, we are taking a similar wholesale price increase to that taken in 2007.
"We need to review our prices on a regular basis and will continue to do so. Given the high level of cost increases, we will not rule out further increases in 2008 if they become necessary."
Page said it was "inevitable" there would be further price increases from brewers this year.
Struggling
He said the big national brewers were "struggling" and beer sales were likely to be down 7% or 8% in the year to March 2008.
Page added: "The on-trade has really got to up its game if it wants to survive. Good operators will continue to do well. Unfortunately, there are going to be casualties. I think we'll see a couple of thousand fewer outlets over the next few years."
Analyst Mark Brumby of Blue Oar Securities said: "If the pub companies pass on these price increases to their tenants, the latter will be looking at trying to push through rises of some 13p a pint in the price of standard lager.
"In a very weak beer market with the consumer threatening to go on strike, the smoking ban biting and off-trade pricing to the consumer still bumping along at below cost, that may be more easily said than done."
New delivery charges
S&NUK is adding 75p per 11-gallon container of lager under a new scheme to begin in the next few weeks. Last November, Carlsberg added surcharges of 90p per nine and 11-gallon keg and 50p per 18-gallon container.
S&NUK spokesman Nigel Pollard said: "The charge reflects the delivery cost of small containers."
Carlsberg spokesman Gareth Roberts said: "The key reason is to cater for the additional cost in the supply chain when utilising smaller containers as against the larger containers.
"This is reflected in a lower container charge for a bigger unit. It also gives assistance against the increasing cost of keg loss within the industry, reported to be approximately £60m for small containers."
Coors has a long-standing charge of £1.50 on nine and 11-gallon containers.
The moves come against a background of talk by the British Beer & Pub Association of a "cash-neutral" keg deposit scheme, with hosts only paying if they fail to return kegs.
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